Chugging along
Despite these concerns, van Doesburg remains positive that there have been “a progressive line of improvements” to the rail service in recent years. According to a recent report from Henan TV, cited by DHL’s Kaufmann, the China-Europe rail traffic from January to July 2015 have already exceeded the total rail traffic figures for 2014. There’s also been a 221 percent increase in train trips, year-over-year, to 328 during the same period.
If railfreight is going to succeed anywhere, it has to be in Eurasia, van Doesburg said. “You might see some niche markets in Latin America or Africa, but you cannot find the same volumes and the connectivity that you can with these new Silk Road routes,” he said. “China has influenced the development really well, creating new trade lanes.”
“Volume growth has been in the double digits, and sometimes even triple digits,” Wieland said. Next year, DB Schenker expects to see between 20 and 30 percent growth in Eurasian rail cargo volume. UTt’s Lee said the forwarder’s current weekly 41 FEU rail shipments on its Iron Silk Road could increase to twice or even three times per week next year, “if the demand is justified.”
“As I’ve been telling IATA, these are the dangers that are facing your mode of transport unless you take steps to make air transport more attractive to shippers,” van Doesburg said. “Air carriers should make sure they modernize their processes or more customers will be happy to make the jump to a new mode.”
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