A short-term traffic surge
Not all trade-war ramifications are entirely negative – at least in the short term. For instance, AfA’s Fried noted that there is currently a scramble among some shippers and forwarders to move goods before the July 6 deadline – a situation made worse by the recent grounding of 11 Nippon Cargo Airlines freighters due top maintenance issues.
“As I think about the NCA freighter situation, a concern about those shippers trying to beat the looming tariffs comes to mind,” Fried said. “Many of the commodities targeted may not be suitable for passenger belly flights but the NCA planes would be well-suited for that type of cargo.”
Speaking to the New York Times, John Manners-Bell, CEO of Transport Intelligence, said “there will be a surge in exports from China and from the U.S. as the date approaches. We have certainly seen that in the past with these sorts of impositions of tariffs and quotas.”
Manners-Bell and Fried both expect air rates to begin soaring as the deadline gets closer and more companies begin shifting of some cargo from seafreight to air.