The latest traffic figures released by IATA and WorldACD for February revealed sharp year-over-year rises in volume and freight tonne kilometers (FTKs). But any joy that could be savored from these results was tempered by the knowledge that the good times will be fleeting, as most of the increases were attributable to the confluence of the U.S. West Coast port crisis and the Chinese Lunar New Year, both of which peaked almost on the same day.
According to IATA, the rush of traffic before the Lunar New Year, which occurred on Feb. 19, and the solution to the seaport impasse, which reached an accord the next day, contributed to particularly high demand for air cargo, causing February FTKs to rise by 11.7 percent, compared to the previous February. Capacity over that period also grew by 7.4 percent, leading to higher average load factors. Yields, however, declined globally, partially due to a reduction in fuel surcharges, IATA noted.
IATA also cautioned that these numbers are likely not sustainable. “Nobody expects growth to continue at this pace,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO. “As we look forward, however, there is room for optimism. Business confidence improved slightly and trade continues to grow. The year is shaping up in line with a growth expectation of 4 to 5 percent.”
Another contributing factor to February’s rosy hue, IATA said, was a recall of millions of airbags from Japanese automobiles in the United States. Replacement parts for the recall, normally shipped by sea, had to be sent via charter air carriers in Japan at premium prices due to the choked-off traffic at the ports. “The port congestion problem has also benefitted North American carriers, which experienced an 8.7 percent rise in FTKs in February year-on-year,” IATA said. “These benefits to air cargo are likely to subside once the underlying port issues are resolved.”
IATA also said that FTKs for Asia-Pacific carriers were up 20.8 percent in February, y-o-y, adding that while Japanese trade was a major factor, other emerging Asian and Chinese trade activity appeared to cool off during the month.
Meanwhile, airfreight statistics firm WorldACD agreed that the majority of February’s global average growth came from the trans-Pacific market, which saw a whopping 90 percent spike in volume, year-over-year, and a 13 percent increase in average westbound rates, mostly due to port congestion and the airbag recall. “The origin, Japan, which returned dismal figures for quite a while, saw its fortunes change, showing a glorious trans-Pacific performance,” the report said. “Volume more than doubled, y-o-y, and revenues grew even more, in the wake of an astounding 44 percent yield improvement.”
February’s performance was “almost exclusively driven from origins in [the] Asia-Pacific [region]. The area chalked up a y-o-y improvement of 28 percent in volume and 3 percent in yield.” Average yields from Asia-Pacific, compared to January, increased by almost 7 percent, WorldACD found.
Globally, airfreight tonnage grew by 8 percent, y-o-y, in February, which WorldACD said was a continuation of “the trend of the past one and half years.” It also said average February yields, fell 6.8 percent, y-o-y, in U.S. dollars, mostly reflecting drops in fuel surcharges. However, for the first time in three years, the organization noted that worldwide U.S. dollar yield was higher in February than it was in January (a 1.6 percent increase).
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