Not all regions are equipped to meet SAF targets

The aviation industry has committed to achieving net zero by 2050, yet not everyone can meet this goal . For some regions, access to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), government support and technologies lag the ambitious 2050 target IATA set in 2021. [caption id="attachment_57137772" align="alignright" width="300"] (Photo/Can Stock)[/caption] In a recent report highlighting energy market growth over the past 30 years, IATA stated that wind and solar power have been successful because of a strategic policy framework and support of technological advancements. As an example, wind energy accounted for 7.8% of the world’s energy in 2023 while solar power accounted for 5.5% of the world's electricity, according to the report. While there is no one-size-fits-all set of policies to eradicate carbon emissions in aviation everywhere simultaneously, industry leaders and governments across the globe should set realistic policies that can contribute to creating a global market for SAF, according to the report, released July 25. SAF production, while projected to reach 1.9 billion liters this year, accounts for 0.5% of the total need for 2050, according to the report. Numerous airlines and members of IATA , as well as the International Civil Aviation Organization , have committed to using a 5% SAF blend by 2030. The European Union has mandated use of a 2% SAF blend by 2025. The United States has not set mandates for SAF but offers tax incentives for SAF producers and users through legislation. But SAF feedstocks, derived from waste materials, are scarce. In its latest report, IATA stated that SAF, depending on its type, can cost two to five times more than traditional jet fuel, which costs $2.16 per gallon today. Limited pathway to goals Not every region and country has mandates or a policy framework to support net-zero targets. Air New Zealand in July announced it would back down from its 2030 sustainability target s , or of reducing fleet carbon emissions by 28.9% from its 2019 baseline. New Zealand has not mandated SAF use and no SAF is produced in the country. “The ongoing supply chain issues and significant limitations to SAF availability are impacting all airlines, meaning Air New Zealand may be only the first of many that are forced to reconsider their ambitious sustainability targets in response to factors outside their control,” market intelligenge organization Centre for Aviation said in a July 31 statement following Air New Zealand’s repeal of its 2030 targets. Some regions do not have policies in place to achieve net zero, even incrementally, IATA said. “When it comes to integrating policy, technology and accessibility into sustainability initiatives, Europe has been leading the charge,” Brandon Fried , executive director at the Airforwarders Association , told Air Cargo Next . European policy has “set ambitious targets and provided significant funding for SAF development. Scandinavian countries in particular have made impressive strides by mandating SAF usage on certain flights and offering incentives for innovation.” In contrast, regions such as Africa and parts of Southeast Asia face challenges due to limited infrastructure, funding and political focus, Fried said. “The SAF market today is in its utter infancy, and the meager quantities produced are sold through private deals,” the IATA report stated. “As a result, prices are estimated from the production cost side rather than from observed and traded prices, and both supply and demand volumes remain opaque. Policy intervention is sorely needed to address this market failure and to mitigate the effects of inaction.” Most of the SAF produced today is made from waste fats and oils by way of the HEFA process, or hydrotreated esters and fatty acids process, John Dees , senior decarbonization scientist at Carbon Direc t , told Air Cargo Next . “Feedstocks for HEFA are under pressure and ultimately limited, ” he said. “HEFA SAF is more expensive than conventional [jet fuel]. Other methods for producing SAF, such as alcohol-to-jet and hydrothermal liquefaction , can utilize other types of more abundant feedstocks like energy crops, agricultural and forest residues, municipal solid waste, human waste and CO2 , in some cases.” But these technologies are relatively new in this application, he said. “The commercial facilities being constructed are ‘first of a kind,’ which means it will take time to gain experience operating them efficiently and developing efficient supply chains,” Dees said. “Initial costs and risks to financiers and developers are high. So, while many of these feedstocks could one day translate to SAF that are cost competitive or cheaper than HEFA SAF, the early projects tend to be expensive and difficult to finance when buyers are price sensitive and perhaps unwilling to sign long-term purchase agreements.”

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