A Slim Fit: E-commerce and the narrowbody conversion boom

Future is open wide

While these are undoubtedly boom times for the conversions industry, how long can this period of intense activity last? Most of the conversion houses and lessors say the good times may remain for quite some time.

According to Dan da Silva, vice president of modification and conversion services at Boeing Commercial Aviation, the market outlook for narrowbody freighters is expected to remain “strong for the foreseeable future.” In 2014, Boeing forecast that world air cargo traffic would grow 5.1 percent per year between 2015 and 2018. “The results from the first quarter of 2015 support this forecast,” he added. “This demand will be satisfied by new production freighters, parked freighters brought back into fleets, and new freighter conversions.”

At AEI, Convey said there will be enough narrowbody business to support 20 to 25 conversions each year through 2018. “Then there will be a dip for about six to nine months until we can start the 737-800 program.”

McCarthy said Precision expects to continue to complete about three to six 757 conversions per year for several more years before the program slowly tapers off. While he is unsure what direction the company will take after the 757s disappear, he said he prefers the prospects of the A321 P-to-F program to the “saturated” market for 737-800 conversions.

Hollmann, at PACAVI, said he hopes to receive an STC for A320 conversions from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, and the EU’s European Aviation Safety Agency in 2016. “From then on, our plan is to grow fast,” he said. “We expect HAITEC to account for about a dozen commercial conversions a year, with the first conversions ready to hit the market in early 2017. We are well positioned to dominate this market in the coming years.”

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